FUN WITH NUMBERS
So since it’s Friday I thought we’d lighten things up a bit. OK, maybe not really light, but for people like me who appreciate actual data it’s fun; almost like going to the carnival (sad I know). I’m going to dive into the data concerning the vax and COVID deaths here in the US, which doesn’t sound light, but it should be amusing to those of us who never drank the Kool-Aid as we watch the true-believers twist themselves into pretzels to explain these numbers.
This gets a bit mathy so let’s begin with the end in mind and just say that when you take into account all the data; how many people have been vaxxed, who they are (age and health status), when they were vaxxed, variant lethality, and how many people have died and when they died, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of support for the alleged efficacy of the vaccine. Certainly nowhere near how it's been sold to us. That’s it in a nutshell, so if you’re not a numbers person you can cut out now. But for those who want to see support for my assertion, read on.
Anybody left? OK. As of today the US has recorded roughly 1.1 million deaths attributed to COVID. Now we all know that number is inflated, probably grossly, but we’ll deal with what we got. If you follow a total deaths graph you count 575,000 deaths in the first 13 months of the pandemic (3/1/20-4/1/21), then in the ensuing 18 months (4/1/21-9/30/22) you count 500,000 deaths. Those numbers are not that different considering we started with a completely immune-naïve population and we had no idea what to do with people who got sick or particularly with the elderly living in community settings where the governors of several northeast states are responsible for tens of thousands of grandma deaths alone.
I chose 4/1/21 as a demarcation point because I’m trying to give the vax every benefit of the doubt and be as fair as possible, and that’s when we hit 20% vaccine coverage in the US. That 20% should be almost entirely the “vulnerable” – that is the elderly (and so-called front line workers). Remember, that was the planned rollout, old first, and aside from you line-jumpers who stepped over grandma to get the jab because you were afraid, by 4/1/21 that 20% should have been the “vulnerable” and those are the people who account for almost every single death recorded (the US population over age 65 accounts for about 17% of the whole so with a 20% vax rate, that should cover the majority of old folks). By the way, I could have easily made my demarcation point January 1, 2021 which would coincide with the rollout of the vaccine; that would make the before vax and after vax numbers roughly 380,000 before the vax and 710,000 after. But that would be a somewhat dishonest representation and since my name isn’t Anthony Fauci, I try to be an honest and decent person.
Also, as of 12/31/21 (the half-way point between the vax period of 4/1/21 and 9/30/22) we had a 64% fully vaxxed coverage which again should have been anyone who was even remotely “at risk”. As those up to age 40 account for only about 27,000 of deaths which accounts for about 2.5% of all COVID deaths as of today, and tens of millions of children weren’t vaxxed (thankfully) on 12/31/21, (kids representing about 25% of our total population) that 64% figure accounts for just about everyone who might benefit from the vax. Realize that after two and a half years, for those under 65, their population fatality risk from COVID is at most one-tenth of one percent, so by the very laws of mathematics the vaccine can provide essentially no benefit. You cannot improve on a risk of ZERO. That’s an actual fact.
Then there’s Omicron, which has been the dominant strain in circulation since December (then accounting for more than 70% of infections) and is well-established to be much less lethal than previous dominant strains; estimated to be only about 15% as lethal as Delta.
So we have 575,000 deaths in 13 months (44,000/month) in a completely immune-naïve population where we were caught with our pants down, we actively contributed to tens of thousands of those deaths (old folks homes and ventilators in hospitals), and pretty much anything that moved was counted as a COVID death, then we have 500,000 deaths over the next 18 months (28,000/month) where almost everyone who was “at risk” was “fully vaccinated” and for at least half that time (1/1/22-9/30/22) we were confronted with a strain that was much less dangerous, yet during that same time (1/1-9/30) we accumulated about 40% of those 500,000 deaths. How do you account for almost half the deaths in a time of higher vaccination and a strain (Omicron) only about one-sixth as lethal as the strain before (Delta)? By the way again, if I had pulled a Fauci and made my demarcation point January 1, 2021 the monthly death numbers would be 34,000/month before the vax and 36,000/month after; that would be a completely legitimate move to bolster my point, but again that wouldn’t really be fair or honest so I didn’t do it.
Now while you’ll read endless articles telling you how the vax saved perhaps jillions of lives, I just don’t see it as it played out in the real world. Just the fact that a great deal of the “dry tinder” (not my term) was cleared out in 2020, one would naturally expect to see less deaths in the second half of the pandemic than the first as there were less zebras for the lions to catch, even with no vaccines at all. So where EXACTLY does one see any significant benefit of the vaccine in real world numbers? Almost the entire reduction in deaths in 2022 could easily be attributed to a less lethal strain and natural immunity from previous infection and have nothing to do with the vaccine at all.
Look at the graph below. The biggest wave in 20/21 was largely Delta deaths where the vaccine could not possibly have had an effect on the number of deaths. But then look at the last two waves in fall 2021 and winter 21/22. There we have 50-65% of the population vaxxed, a dominant strain only some 15% as lethal as Delta before it, yet two big waves of death. How could one conclude the vaccine did anything considering that data?
Has the vax saved some lives? Almost certainly some, perhaps a few people who somehow escaped Alpha and Delta but would have succumbed to a much weaker Omicron. And perhaps for you that’s enough. Has it been as effective against “serious illness and death” as we’ve been told? Doesn’t seem that way. And when we finally get the real data to calculate the physical harm and death caused by the vaccine, not to mention the social upheaval; the “othering” of our fellow Americans from vax-o-mania, we may not like what we see. EVERYTHING has a cost. But what do I know, I’m just an anti-science kook. So get in line for that new bivalent booster. It’ll definitely work. DEFINITELY.