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SHOULD THE UNVAXXED BE AFRAID OF THE VAXXED?

10/12/21

So here’s some actual SCIENCE AND DATA out of the UK reporting statistics compiled during the month of September.  First, this interesting note. The authors state (my caps): “The RATE of a positive COVID-19 test is SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals UP TO THE AGE OF 39.” Now as has been pointed out to me many times, I’m not a virologist, immunologist, epidemiologist, or a little man who literally has his own prayer candles on his own bookshelf; I have not been a finalist for Sexiest Man of the Year (clearly a political snub), nor do I now have a  cool documentary about my very own greatness, but I’m pretty sure (with all due humility) I can count, and if you look at the highlighted data below, there is clearly a higher “positive COVID-19 test” rate among the fully vaxxed vs. the completely unvaxxed for ages 30-39. So it seems the quote cited above is something of an untruth. Doesn’t anybody proof-read this stuff? 763 IS more than 738, right? Or is it just me? Even if you want to call them statistically even, “SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER” seems somewhat disingenuous. While this may very well simply be a sloppy oversight, I think it’s more indicative of the casual relationship with the truth we have seen for some 20 months now when it comes to all things ‘rona. Very rarely does the narrative we are being fed accurately represent the data collected.

Anyway, the point of this piece is that, as we’re all aware, our “experts” and mainstream media dolts are trying to crush the evil, stupid unvaxxed by saying they present a “danger” to the vaxxed. President  Joe “I like ice cream” Biden has gone so far as to attempt to compel the unvaccinated, by threat of loss of livelihood, to get vaccinated to protect the…already vaccinated. We are told it’s the dirty unwashed masses of unvaccinated folk who are endangering everyone and who are keeping the country from “getting back to normal” whatever that might look like.

We are also told this now-common nonsense which is repeated in this report: “In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is EXPECTED that a LARGE PORTION of cases, hospitalisations [sic] and deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, SIMPLY BECAUSE A LARGER PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION ARE VACCINATED and no vaccine is 100% effective.” First of all, it’s larger proportion “is”, not larger proportion “are” (sorry, it’s an illness of mine). Second, that’s a load of bollocks. Yes I know we’ve all heard it many times recently from “experts” and talking heads alike, and of course because of that many of us “know” it’s true, but alas, bollocks all the same. First, how exactly are you defining “LARGE PORTION”? Second, this data shows clear MAJORITIES of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the fully vaccinated which are grossly out of line with the vaccinated to unvaccinated ratio.

Just look at the last two columns in the chart below. Those are rates per 100,000. That tells you your chance of being infected based on your vaccine status. That metric equalizes the absolute number of people involved. So while some may believe that with more people vaxxed, more vaxxed people would be infected (it just makes sense right?), the RATES PER 100,000 stat puts the lie to that “fact”. Above the age of 30, the RATE of infection is higher in the fully vaccinated, not just the absolute number of infected. People who are fully vaccinated are getting infected at a significantly HIGHER RATE than the unvaccinated. How do you explain that? Even if you say it’s from the waning effectiveness of the vaccine, that doesn’t explain why they are getting infected so much MORE than the unvaxxed.

Also, just look at the other numbers. Right now there are about two times more folks in the UK vaxxed than not (67% vs 33%), but look at the two columns headed “Not vaccinated” and “Second dose ≥ 14 days before specimen date” (these are the “fully vaxxed”). At ages 30-39 you have twice as many “cases” in the fully vaxxed as the unvaxxed. This might support the “More vaxxed = more cases in vaxxed” theory, because both ratios, the numbers of vaxxed vs. unvaxxed and the numbers of cases in each group are about 2:1, but look at the ages after that. In 40-49 year olds the infected fully vaxxed number is SEVEN TIMES higher than the unvaxxed. In the 50-59 group is TWELVE TIMES higher, then SEVENTEEN TIMES higher and so on. And the “rates per 100,000” are consistently significantly higher in the fully vaxxed than unvaxxed. How do you explain that? If the RATE of infection was even just the same between the two groups, that would mean the vaccine provides NO protection, but what we are seeing suggests the vaccine actually provides NEGATIVE protection. That is, somehow the vaccine is actually making it easier for fully vaccinated people to get infected.

Think of it this way: If the rate of infection was the same between the two groups, say 1%, that would mean out of every 100 vaccinated people and every 100 unvaccinated people, 1 person from each group would be infected. That means the vaccine demonstrated NO benefit in keeping people from being infected, right? You would stand the same risk of infection whether you were jabbed or not (1%). But according to these numbers, the vaccinated are getting infected at a HIGHER RATE which means not only does the vaccine demonstrate no benefit in keeping people from being infected, but shows an actual effect of somehow causing MORE people to be infected. So by these numbers (I wonder why we don’t see this kind of information here from our government), if you get vaccinated, you have actually INCREASED your chances of getting infected! That would appear to be a mathematical fact.

UK CASES

Now it does appear by this data that there is a benefit to the vaxxed as to hospitalizations and deaths (charts below) by RATE, but not by absolute numbers. The absolute numbers are what drives the hysteria – the media reports HOW MANY PEOPLE are infected, hospitalized or dead, not by what rate it’s happening. And it appears that the large majority of actual cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are in the fully vaccinated. Again, grossly disproportionate to the 2:1 vaxxed to unvaxxed ratio. So there’s that. But looking at the RATES of hospitalization and death reveals some interesting perspective. Without getting too deep into the weeds (I know, too late) here’s the bottom line.

While the RATES of hospitalizations and deaths may be several times higher in the unvaxxed compared to the vaxxed, what is the actual absolute difference? Remember, the RATE is a calculation of how many people per 100,000 (in this case) will end up in the hospital or dead from a particular group. But as I have discussed in previous posts on masks or vaccines, what you are interested in is how much you improve YOUR risk profile by engaging in any particular “mitigation” strategy. In other words, how much have you improved your chances of NOT getting seriously ill or dead by engaging in a particular behavior – here that behavior is vaccination. Here are some numbers from the charts below. I use the largest differences, so in case you think I’m cherry-picking the data to make my case look better, I’m not, I’m looking at the “benefit” of the vaccine by difference in rate.

Hospitalizations:

Ages 18-29:     The unvaccinated rate is about seven times higher than the rate of hospitalizations for the vaccinated, but the actual rate difference is 0.006%, or six one-thousandths of one percent.

Ages 50-59:     The unvaccinated rate is about five times higher than the rate of hospitalizations for the vaccinated, but the actual rate difference is 0.03%, or three one-hundredths of one percent.

Deaths:

Ages 30-39:      The unvaccinated rate is about 10 times higher (that’s how it is sold to you) than the rate of deaths for the vaccinated, but the actual rate difference is 0.0009%, or nine ten-thousandths of one percent.

Ages 50-59:     The unvaccinated rate is about 8 times higher than the rate of deaths for the vaccinated, but the actual rate difference is 0.009%, or nine one-thousandths of one percent.

Please remember that seven times, or even ten times nothing is still nothing. And these types of differences in absolute risk reduction are what was seen by Pfizer and the other drug companies in their initial drug trials for these vaccines. They were reported to you as “95%” effective (which of course now we know to be nonsense) because 95% of the “cases” were found in the unvaccinated. But the actual differences in symptomatic illness, hospitalization, and death were miniscule, measured by hundredths or even thousandths of a percent.

So let’s be clear. If you are in my age cohort (50-59), at least according to this data, and you are vaccinated and I am not, you have improved your risk of not ending up in the hospital or dead by three one-hundredths of one percent and nine one-thousandths of one percent respectively. That’s it. That’s always been it. In other age groups the actual “benefit” will be similarly small.

UK HOSP

 

UK DEATHS

In any event, these numbers in no way support the narrative that the unvaccinated are driving the spread of the virus. Hospitalizations or deaths? It seems your chances of being hospitalized or killed by coronavirus is higher for the unvaxxed (higher rates per 100,000), but as far as the absolute number of people actually ending up in the hospital or dead (those would be the numbers actually “driving” the hysteria) it appears the fully vaxxed are dominating those metrics. Once more, if you are in my age cohort (50-59) and I told you your chances of dying as an unvaccinated person are about eight times higher than your chances of dying as a vaccinated person, well you’d run right out and get vaccinated. But if I told you that chance was actually 0.01% you might say, "Shoot, I'm not gonna worry about a "risk" that tiny." Or if I told you your risk of being one of the actual dead people is the same if you’re vaccinated or not (113 vs. 106) you might not run out quite as quickly.

As far as “infection” goes, again by the data, you as a fully vaccinated individual should have NO CONCERN AT ALL about someone else’s vaccine status. You appear to be a much bigger threat to the unvaxxed than they are to you and therefore the unvaxxed are the ones who should be demonizing the vaxxed. That’s if the unvaxxed were actually living in fear, which they’re not. So get out there and start living your life for Pete’s sake. We're talking about risks measured in the HUNDREDTHS OF THOUSANDTHS OF ONE PERCENT. And please stop demonizing those who choose to exercise their right to personal health autonomy. They are NO THREAT to you.

Oh yeah, and stop listening to the “experts” and talking heads. They’re all idiots and liars.

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