COVID SCIENCE AND DATA ALERT!
February 26, 2021
THE VIRUS IS SEASONAL
So back on February 15th, the Washington Post published a piece entitled “Four reasons experts say coronavirus cases are dropping in the United States” which in and of itself is shocking that this outlet of PANIC PORN (along with the rest of the media) would actually acknowledge that cases are dropping at all. But as you read the article you see the Trojan Horse that the headline truly is. First, phrases like (the capitalizations are mine for emphasis) “…the WORST SURGE YET is finally relenting” and “The country is STILL IN A BAD PLACE…and recent progress could still be IMPERILED, either by new fast-spreading virus VARIANTS or by relaxed social distancing measures.” Scared yet? Next they hit you with this expert and intelligent insight from Tom Frieden, a former director of the CDC who while being interviewed by CNN’s Fareed Zakaria (another PANIC PORN purveyor par excellence) “endorsed the idea that Americans are now seeing the effect of their GOOD BEHAVIOR — not of increased vaccinations.” Frieden goes on to say “I don’t think the vaccine is having much of an impact at all on case rates…It’s what we’re doing right: staying apart, wearing masks, not traveling, not mixing with others indoors.” My question for this moron is, how do you explain the huge increase in cases from October to January with all the same “behavior” being exercised? And before someone chimes in about the post-holiday “surges”, caused by all those evildoers who wanted to spend time with family and friends, I have proven through, you know, math, in previous posts that there were no “surges” after Thanksgiving or Christmas or even Festivus. We weren’t doing anything different in January that we weren’t already doing since last March or April. Frieden continues “we’re NOWHERE NEAR out of the woods…We’ve had THREE SURGES...Whether or not we have a fourth surge is UP TO US, and the STAKES COULDN’T BE HIGHER.” Wow, that word “surge” is a really scary word. I need to change my Underoos. The problem is, the daily case curves we see were not “surges” like the virus was somehow pushing back against our valiant efforts to slow it down, and I’ll show you why I say that soon.
The article goes on to quote other “experts” throwing all kinds of crap on the walls with the point being “stay afraid and do what you’re told”. A message lots of people will listen to and in fact seem to long for. Some of those quoted in the article acknowledge seasonality might have some effect, and vaccines probably play a minor role at this point, but the message is clear. Continue to “behave” the way we tell you to like good little boys and girls. While vaccines would have very, very little effect (if any at all) on the decrease in cases we’ve seen since early January, seasonality on the other hand might just be the ticket. I have been saying for months that the curve would peak sometime in January and then descend irrespective of our mitigation strategies precisely because this virus is seasonal. (I'm like a modern day Nostradamus.) I have supported this position by showing the graphs of daily new cases, hospitalizations and deaths here in the U.S. but many people still refuse, or are simply unable, to see it. I believe the reason for this is that if people could accept that this virus is seasonal just like any other flu-like virus, it would take some of the mystique and scariness away from this “novel” virus and many just cannot seem to let go of that fear. It would also force those people to come to grips with the knowledge that our mitigation strategies were almost entirely impotent as the virus will come and go whenever and wherever it damn well wants to. With those goals in mind, let’s take a look at some actual SCIENCE AND DATA shall we?
But first, let’s talk briefly about a guy named Dr. R. Edgar Hope-Simpson. This is a guy who spent some 50 years studying viruses and through his research and observations he determined the natural path of viral seasonal activity in different temperate regions (essentially north vs. south) and his diagrams show “…for each calendar month the percentage of each zone’s total outbreaks.” Now I know you’re all probably fascinated with this topic and are saying “Steve, where can I get his book?” Well you can buy it on Amazon for a mere $138. It’s only about 270 pages and it looks like a real page-turner, but while I am as excited as the next guy to spend a day watching paint dry at an insurance convention, even for me this one would be a slog. So if you decide to get it, let me know how it ends. Anyway, Hope-Simpson drew his graphs of seasonal viral activity and they match up remarkably well with what we’ve seen over the last year from the “novel” coronavirus. Ok, NOW to the graphs Batman! (shout out to the Boy Wonder)
Here’s Europe. I apologize for the poor quality of the graphics but #1 I’m something of a luddite (whenever I have an issue with some new-fangled computer thing I hand it to my kid and say “make this work please”), and #2 This was the easiest way for me to do this in the shortest amount of time (please see #1 above).
The particulars are not important but as you can see, these graphs all pretty much follow the same pattern of a relatively small bump back in March and April, then a flattening of the curve (hey, remember when that was a thing?) with basically no activity through June, July, and August, and then a pick up in activity in September and October with a peak and subsequent drop-off in December or January. Different countries with different demographics – age, ethnicity, population density, health status – and different mitigation strategies – mask implementation and lockdown timing and severity – and yet they all look the same. Even that pesky Sweden (darn those Swedes who didn’t all die like the PANIC PORNERS said they would!), which did nothing – no mask requirements, no lockdowns, and only a suggestion of three feet social distance – but essentially life as normal (actually followed the WHO October 2019 pandemic guidelines. Imagine that?), and yet, the same graph presentation. Notice Sweden's pattern is essentially the same as their next door neighbor Norway, you know, one of the “good” Nordic countries (read “obedient”). How do you explain that? For those who will say that all these countries did “pretty much” the same thing to mitigate the virus (except, again, Sweden), and it was those measures that defeated the virus and caused the drop in the curve in the spring, then you have to explain what the hell happened in all of these places come the fall. Did they all suddenly unmask and unlock in August or September? I say nay, nay! (shout out John Pinette) And if you insist that masks and lockdowns must keep things from getting worse, then you have to explain Sweden. (crickets chirping)
Don’t care what’s going on across the pond? OK, let’s look in our own hemisphere. For those who look at the graph of U.S. cases and say there is obviously no seasonality, just watch this prestidigitation. When you overlap the viral path of Canada to our north with that of Mexico to our south you get, ABRACADABRA!, the pattern in the U.S. (we’re in the middle of those two nations and incorporate both patterns). Thank you, thank you. For my next trick I’ll saw a woman in half.
Not into international? OK, let’s take a look within the good ol’ USA. First, the Northeast.
Look familiar? Scroll back up to Europe if you’ve already forgotten. Or even just peak back at Canada. An initial bump in spring, then flat through summer, then back up again in fall/winter. Just like Hope-Simpson described. Almost as if it’s…seasonal. (Hey, maybe I really am Nostradamus!)
Now how about the southern states?
Again, they all look basically the same. Compare to Mexico. Basically no activity in the spring, then a bump in summer (the opposite of the northern states), then a big jump in fall. Just like Hope-Simpson described. Almost as if it’s…well, you know. And here you also have that pesky Florida (darn those Floridians who didn’t all die like the PANIC PORNERS said they would!) who despite their stupid, selfish, science-denying approach to the virus show the same pattern curve. And this with the understanding that Florida has by far the oldest population in the country. While they are technically second by percentage to Maine (20.6% to Florida’s 20.5% of people over 65), Florida has about the same amount of seniors (about 4.5 million) as the other nine out of ten oldest states combined (about 4.8 million). So there’s that. And while California has about one million more seniors than Florida, they also have about twice the population which gives them a significantly lower percentage of seniors.
One last example. Let’s reach back to a previous post (“The Case of the Dakotas”) and take another look at North and South Dakota.
Without going through all the particulars again (go back and read the post if you’re interested), you can see that these two curves are basically identical. On November 14th, North Dakota mandated masks and moderately locked down. South Dakota did nothing, yet shows an identical curve almost to the exact day of peak cases. I have suggested that this proves masks and lockdowns have no effect and that this virus is seasonal and doesn’t care about your mitigation strategies. I have been stating since the beginning that thinking we can somehow affect the activity of this virus is both arrogant and foolhardy, but that’s just me. By the way, the “experts” said that South Dakota could see a peak of as many as 10,000 hospitalizations without any action. South Dakota’s peak (with no action) was about 600 hospitalizations. And South Dakota was compared to Somalia and Yemen by an idiot from the University of Washington from whence almost all the PANIC PORN you’ve heard over the last year emanated. (darn those South Dakotans who didn’t all die like the PANIC PORNERS said they would!) Hey, here’s a thought, stop listening to the “experts”.
In any event, if you can look at all the actual SCIENCE AND DATA above and not recognize the seasonal behavior of the virus, and more importantly, not see the futility of mitigation interventions I don’t know what else to say. And if you can look at the Dakotas and not only not admit seasonality but also stick to your “masks and lockdowns work” mantra, then it appears what you’re saying is that when the virus gang in Sioux Falls South Dakota heard that Sheriff Maskup and Deputy Lockdown were coming for the virus gang in Fargo, North Dakota (250 miles away) the Sioux Falls gang high-tailed it out of town because they recognized that the powers of the mask and lockdown are just that effective and they didn't stand a chance. That doesn’t sound very scientificacious to me. But you do you.
“So what’s the point of all this Steve? Yeah, you’re right, the virus is seasonal and our mitigation attempts have failed to make any kind of significant dent in the number of infections. You win. Now what? So we’re at the mercy of the virus and we just roll over and die?” No, actually the point of all my posts is just the opposite. They are meant to get people to realize that the “experts” that we’ve been listening to for the past year have almost no idea what they’re doing and they have led us astray. My intention is to get you to recognize that while you’ve been distracted with, and obsessed with hiding under your bed, washing your mail, wearing masks (and demonizing those who don’t), not going near other humans, let alone touching them (no more handshakes ever, don’t hug grandma), and “knowing” the vaccine will save you, the things we could have all been doing for the last year that would actually help us combat this virus have been ignored. I wrote for the first time way back on April 8, 2020 (Coronavirus and Comorbidity) just as this thing started, that what we should all have been doing is actually getting healthier. (Almost dislocated my shoulder patting myself on the back with that one.) The evidence was clear even then that those who were overweight or metabolically unhealthy (insulin resistant, pre-diabetic, diabetic; which is most Americans by the way) were at greater risk of a negative experience with the virus. If we had all started eating better, just even reducing the amount of processed crap we shove down our gullets, this would have improved our health and afforded us better protection. I then wrote on April 28, 2020 (This is Important) about the value of Vitamin D. But how much of this did you hear from the medical “experts” or main stream media? For every one mention of these things there were literally a thousand articles telling you we were all going to die. Instead they closed the gyms, the parks, the beaches, and houses of worship but kept the liquor stores and pot shops open. They closed your workplaces and made you afraid to leave your house so you just sat there on your computer and ordered all your food in. You barely had to move off the couch. How many of us have gained the “COVID 19” or the “Pandemic 15”? How many of us are actually healthier today than we were a year ago? Not many. How many of us are less healthy than we were a year ago? Probably a lot. And I’m just talking physically here, not even addressing psychological damage. My entire career has been spent trying to help people actually get healthier (and not just be concerned with suppressing a symptom). If someone wanted to write a guideline for doing just the opposite, we have done it over the last year. So how about we consider maybe it’s time to stop letting the dictocrats and medical “experts” run our lives and we begin to empower ourselves to become healthier and happier? How about we stop worshipping at the altars of medicine and politics and start to appreciate the power we each have within our own bodies? How about we take control and responsibility for our own destinies? Nah, let’s just stop off for some pizza and beer on our way home from getting our vaccine…