So I’ve stayed away from discussing the “v” word (don’t want the FBI showing up at my door) because I’ve had so much push-back to my posts of the actual SCIENCE AND DATA concerning the lack of efficacy of masks that I figured talking about the jab would make many apoplectic. But every day people ask me about it –Should they get it? Will I get it? Which one should they get? And now this J & J business. So here I’ve put together some facts about the actual effectiveness of the “v”. I will not comment on the nature of the mRNA technology or the reported side effects being seen because when you start talking about a “gene therapy” as opposed to a “v”, or how we are conducting an experiment on the entire world using a technology that affects your very DNA, all of a sudden you’re the Grand Poobah (shout out Flintstones) of QAnon, and that’s not productive. Suffice it to say, when one of the bosses at Moderna says, regarding mRNA technology “we are actually hacking the software of life”, that gives me reason for pause. I’m concerned that whoever or whatever wrote the original software might know more than we do and well, “pride goeth before a fall” and that sort of thing. But as has been pointed out repeatedly, I’m not a virologist, immunologist, or an epidemiologist so maybe I should just stay in my lane.
Anyway, if you’ve gotten the shot or are waiting to be “eligible” then you don’t care about those issues. If you’re not planning on getting the shot then those issues don’t really matter to you either. But as you may know, I’m sort of a stickler for actual SCIENCE AND DATA and my arch nemesis is the propaganda and outright lying that now passes for “reliable” dare I say “fact-checked” information and “science”. So, if you’re on the fence about the shot issue, I believe you have a right to informed consent (crazy, I know). That is, of what value is the shot, really (again without directly addressing side effects). What are the pros and cons, really. It’s really none of my business, or anyone else’s, whether you get stuck or not. But for those still weighing your options, or those who feel pressure from others to do something you may not want to do, read on.
Let’s start with three IRREFUTABLE TRUTHS.
Here’s your risk of death from COVID-19 by age group. I provide here the risk calculated on the “official” counted number of “all deaths involving COVID-19”:
Age 0-17 0.0003%
Age 18-29 0.006%
Age 30-39 0.01%
Age 40-49 0.04%
Age 50-64 0.1%
1. Truth #1 is that your risk of having a dangerous interaction with this coronavirus, certainly under the age of 65, is so small that it should be of no concern.
As an American citizen, you stand a 99.8+% chance of experiencing no significant interaction with this virus. And while I only listed up to age 64, the numbers don’t really increase all that much from 65 and up, but above age 64 your chances of having a conflict with Irrefutable Truth #3 are probably small enough to have your pros outweigh your cons. Probably.
2. Truth #2 is that the protective benefit of the jab is actually infinitesimally small. That’s a mathematical fact. We’ll look at this in a moment.
3. Truth #3 is that the medium and long term side effects of the jab are unknowable. That is just a self-evident fact. The long term effects may be nothing, but we simply do not know and therefore every person who gets the jab (hacking your software) is literally an experimental Guinea Pig.
Now the actual numbers as they pertain to Truth #2:
Everyone has no doubt heard about the “95% effectiveness” of the shot and you may even be familiar with the numbers that the government has told you show that the shot is a great success. According to the Pfizer vaccine study as reported in the New England Journal of Medicine (not “Crackpots R Us”), the numbers are as follows. They show us that in the Pfizer study of about 40,000 people (about 20,000 in each group of either vaccinated or placebo) there were a total of 170 infections recorded with 162 of them being in the placebo group and only 8 in the vaccine group. The 95% effective number is what is called a relative risk reduction number and is sort of a made up accounting term which doesn’t really mean a whole lot in real life. Let me explain.
There is a better, more realistic way to look at these numbers. If you calculate the population case rate for each group of about 20,000 subjects you come up with an infection rate of 0.7% in the placebo group (162/20,000) and a 0.04% infection rate (8/20,000) in the shot group. Now you can look at those numbers and say the infection rate in the placebo group is 17 times higher than the vaccine group and that is mathematically true. But 17 times nothing is still nothing. A 0.7% (seven-tenths of one percent) infection rate risk (by just living your life without a shot) is nothing, especially when you realize that the “official” infection rate in America right now is about 10%, and the true number is probably between 30% and 50%. So there’s that. And the reported numbers of infections are roughly the same for Moderna and J & J as these Pfizer numbers.
If you’re interested, the giant Pfizer study done in Israel, which included some 1,200,000 people (by comparison, the studies used by the big three to get emergency approval for their shots had about only 40,000 people in each) showed similar results. The placebo group had a “Documented SARS CoV-2 Infection” rate of 1.2% and the “v” group had a rate of 0.9% for a difference in infection rate of 0.3% (three-tenths of one percent). Numbers for symptomatic cases, severe cases, and hospitalizations were similar. Death rates were 0.007% for the placebo group and 0.003% for the “v” group making the difference in death rate 0.004%. That’s an improvement in your chances of not dying from COVID by taking the jab while walking around just living your life of four one-thousandths of one percent. That is not an opinion or a model or a prediction; that is a mathematical fact.
The more practical way to look at it is like this (going back to the original Pfizer study we started with): You live in a town of about 40,000 people, half of whom, including you, get the jab. How much of an advantage in protection (what we would call an absolute risk reduction) from infection did that jab provide? The answer is about 0.7% (that’s seven-tenths of one percent). How did I get to 0.7%? Well, you take the infection rate in the placebo group of 0.7% and subtract from it the infection rate in the shot group of 0.04% and you end up with a difference of 0.66% (I rounded it up to 0.7% because I’m that kind of guy) That’s a protective benefit from getting stuck in the arm of seven-tenths of one percent. That’s it. And that is also a mathematical fact. If you got the shot and I didn't, your advantage over me is 0.7%.
So this whole exercise is for those who are not sure what to do about the shot and are looking for some real data on which to base their decision, or even for those who are just intellectually curious about what is really going on. As stated before, it’s none of my damn business whether you get the shot or not. As for me, I will not be getting the shot. At 56 years old and in good health, my chances of a bad interaction with COVID stand, at worst, around one-tenth of one percent. That does not concern me in the least. Combine that very low risk with a weak efficacy of the shot and the unknowable side-effects, and it just makes no sense. For me. We didn’t discuss the long-term benefits to your immune system and your ability to defend yourself against this virus (in all its variant forms) from natural infection vs. the jab, but if you’ve been infected, your natural immunity will far and away outperform anything you’d ever get out of a syringe, and if you get vaccinated after being infected, well that’s just silly. If you’re a shot devotee and you are prepared to take a shot every year (or more depending on the evil “variants”) that hacks the “software of your life”, then you do you. But you might want to consider actually getting healthier so maybe you won’t have to live in fear for the rest of your life. As a final comment, it is my fervent belief that if a person is now, or someday will be of child-bearing age, it is absolute insanity (and possibly a crime against humanity) to take this shot as the risks from the virus to those age groups is effectively zero and we have no idea what it may do to a human or their offspring in the future. But that’s just me.