October 13, 2020
PANIC PORN ALERT! “ONLY 10% OF WORLD INFECTED”
So last week you may have missed the report by the World Health Organization that states that fully 10% of the world’s population may have been infected with the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it coronavirus. If this is true, this makes the infection fatality rate of coronavirus just 0.13. If that figure sounds familiar, that’s because it’s just about the same figure as the infection fatality rate for your common seasonal flu. One would think this information would be celebrated as great news: It appears this is not the extinction level event we’ve been led to believe it is. Every year we have a flu season with a similar infection fatality rate and pretty much nobody notices. No shutdowns, no masks, no washing your mail or not allowing others to pet your dog, no being told you’re selfish for wanting to earn money to support your family or even just live your life as you did nary eight months ago; nothing. But instead, the warning from the WHO (and delivered by the media) is “…that the vast majority of the world remains at risk,” Why do you think that is? Why not try to calm the fear all the PANIC PORN has created with actual SCIENCE AND DATA by showing people this virus is apparently no more deadly than any other flu (and is thankfully not affecting children the way the seasonal flu does)? Why instead try to scare people more by warning them that they are still in danger, in fact, grave danger. After all, is there any other kind? (shout out A Few Good Men) If I told you that you had a 99.87% chance of winning the lottery, who amongst us would say “Oh no, those odds aren’t good enough, I’m not playing”? By the way, in the US the infection fatality rate right now may be as high as 0.25, twice the WHO’s worldwide number and twice the seasonal flu rate, but that still means that if you are infected, you stand a 99.75% chance of winning. Still not good enough? How about if we assume that in round numbers about 25% of the US population is or has been infected (figure drawn from CDC estimates of 10 times more infections than diagnosed, natural experiments on ships, and the stated R value of the virus) and with an infection fatality rate even as high as 0.25 that means your chance of dying from coronavirus is about 0.06% (six one-hundredths of one percent). That brings us to a not-dying chance of 99.94%. I’ve been stating numbers similar to these since April and I will reiterate that if those odds aren’t good enough for you, you might be on the wrong planet. And as I have stated often, I’m not telling you not to wear a mask or stay in your house, but maybe you should consider the actual SCIENCE AND DATA and rethink your strategy a little. Or at least stop telling others they’re science-deniers for not sharing your level of concern. The numbers are what they are. Many will get infected, some will get sick, and fewer still will die. As an aside, speaking of R values, masks, and numbers, since the great and good Governor Murphy ordered everyone here in New Jersey to wear masks outside whenever they can see another human being, the R value (that is how rapidly a virus spreads through society) has INCREASED more than 10% from 0.99, under the great white whale number of 1 (shout out Moby Dick), to 1.10. How do you explain that?