COVID SCIENCE AND DATA ALERT!
ONE YEAR LATER
This is about a 12 minute read, but c’mon man, it’s an entire year in review.
So we’re a year into the “novel” coronavirus pandemic and after a full year of complete hysteria, irrationality and outright lies, I figured this is as a good a time as any to see, by the actual SCIENCE AND DATA, what really happened and where we stand. As you know if you’ve been reading my posts, my position is crystal clear: this pandemic has not been anywhere near as bad as the PANIC PORN purveyors, whether our government officials, our medical “experts”, or our mainstream media, have made it out to be. And our reactions to this completely nonsensical hysteria, specifically lockdowns and the incalculable damage they have done to people and society, especially to our kids, is something we’ll be paying for long after people forget the word “COVID”. Further, while I have written multiple times (supported by the actual SCIENCE AND DATA) about the fallacy of the mask, and more importantly how that issue has been leveraged to a larger position of control and compliance, masks in and of themselves are really just more of a silly annoyance, but the “faith” we have put in them and our willingness to “believe” in them in the face of all of the available science is somewhat curious to say the least. This is not to say that I think the virus is a hoax or that people are not getting sick or dying. I’m not a member of QAnon or Conspiracies-r-us. The virus is real, and people are getting sick and some are dying. Having said that, our reactions both as individuals and a society to this challenge have been way, way out of proportion to the actual events on the ground, and our willingness to roll over and show our bellies (again, in the face of all the available science) has been extremely disturbing, in my own humble opinion. If you’re a person who is interested in the actual SCIENCE AND DATA, and you make your decisions about your life accordingly, then read on. If you’re the kind of person who conducts their life according to the projections and models of the “experts” who have told us all about what could, should, might, or will happen (being wrong pretty much every single time), then the following facts will be of no interest to you. And while it is true, as many have pointed out, that I am not a virologist, an immunologist, or an epidemiologist, and I have not been on the cover of a style magazine, it is also true that I am not hysterical, politically or financially motivated, an idiot, or a liar. I’m smart, not like everybody says. (shout out Fredo) I can read English and execute the four basic math functions pretty well. So there’s that. The data I present is all drawn from completely legitimate sources and while the “official” numbers of cases and deaths are nowhere near accurate, those are the data we have so those are the data I use. All numbers are rounded off simply for convenience.
First, some brief background. In October of 2019 the World Health Organization published its latest Guidelines for Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza. In it the WHO says (capitalization mine for emphasis) “This guideline includes an updated review of ALL AVAILABLE EVIDENCE ON THE EFFECTIVENESS of NPIs in mitigating the risk and impact of influenza epidemics and pandemics, and will contribute to preparations for the next pandemic.” So as of October of 2019 this was supposedly the best, most rational evidenced-based information on the planet as to how we “control” viral respiratory spread. The WHO’s position as to hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, face masks, and surface cleaning is: “…there is NO EVIDENCE that [these are] effective in reducing influenza transmission…” As to contact tracing: “Active contact tracing is not recommended in general because there is NO OBVIOUS RATIONALE FOR IT…” As to isolating “exposed” individuals: “Home quarantine of exposed individuals to reduce transmission is not recommended because there is NO OBVIOUS RATIONALE FOR THIS MEASURE…” Yet just five months after these guidelines were published, again the best scientific information on planet earth, we were doing all of these things, and much worse. How do you explain that? Well, maybe with this respiratory virus these mitigation strategies would be more effective. It is a “novel” virus (cue the spooky music) after all. Enough editorializing. To the numbers Batman! (shout out Boy Wonder)
As of this writing, March 16, 2021, worldwide there have been 121,000,000 total cases for a population infection rate of 1.5% (although the true infection number is much, much higher). Currently there are 21,000,000 active cases with 99.6% of those cases being mild (that percentage has been stable for many months). There have been 2,650,000 deaths over the past year for a world-wide population fatality rate of 0.03% (three one-hundredths of one percent). In comparison, during the 1918 Spanish Flu, to which this current pandemic is (wildly inappropriately) compared, there were somewhere around 50,000,000 deaths (some 20 times more than now) for a world population fatality rate of about 2.5% (some 80 times higher than today’s pandemic).
In America there have been 30,000,000 cases. There have been about 548,000 deaths for a population fatality rate of at most 0.16 (sixteen one-hundredths of one percent), or a population survival rate of at least 99.84%. During the Spanish Flu the population fatality rate in the U.S. was about 0.66 (about four times greater than now). There is something very telling as to our national health that we accounted for less than 2% of worldwide flu deaths in 1918 but today we account for about 20% of COVID deaths, but that’s a story for another day (here’s a hint – we are very metabolically unhealthy due to some 40 years of “expert” dictates on what constitutes a “healthy diet”).
The fatality risks to different age groups in America after an entire year of this epidemic are as follows (with no impact from vaccines):
For newborn to age 19 the risk is about 0.0004% (four ten-thousandths of one percent).
For ages 20 to 40 the risk is about 0.008% (eight one-thousandths of one percent)
For ages 40 to 49 the risk is about 0.04% (four one-hundredths of one percent)
For ages 50 to 64 the risk is about 0.1% (one-tenth of one percent)
For ages 65 to 74 the risk is about 0.4% (four-tenths of one percent)
For ages 75 to 84 the risk is about 0.9% (nine-tenths of one percent)
For anyone over age 85 the risk is about 2.5%.
On March 5, 2021 the CDC reported on the most extensive study done to date on the effectiveness of mask use to slow down the spread of the coronavirus. The results show that at the very best, the reduction in daily case growth (not cases) was 1.8%. The same study showed the effect of opening dining contributed at most an increase in daily case growth (not cases) of 1.2%. For further analysis and understanding as to why even these tiny numbers are misleading, and the actual numbers may be as low as one-tenth of one percent, read my previous blog entitled “A Mask Moratorium Exception”.
A year ago we “locked down” to “flatten the curve” but we never did flatten the curve. The curve flattened itself as the virus is clearly seasonal. Since we began lockdowns there have been at least 30 papers published showing the USELESSNESS of lockdowns in mitigating the virus and almost as many papers written showing the DISASTROUS HARMS of lockdowns.
A study also published on March 5, 2021 in the journal Nature, which is the pre-eminent science journal on earth, looked all around the world and found NO EVIDENCE THAT DEATHS WERE REDUCED BY LOCKDOWNS. Lockdowns have been described as the “biggest public health mistake we've ever made...The harm to people is catastrophic."
In the U.S. some 110,000 food establishments have closed due to the lockdowns. That accounts for more than 2,500,000 jobs including tens of thousands of people who have lost their life’s work and savings for nothing. This does not include all the collateral damage from these job losses. And this is only in the restaurant industry.
There is no legitimate data from anywhere on the planet that would justify schools not being open full days every day. Even in this country, the private school right next to your public school has probably been open for business as usual all year with no problems. And most sources (now) agree that three foot distancing is fine for school settings. The “six foot distancing” is another lie everybody thinks they know is true. As if it really mattered at all – silly humans, thinking you can control a virus that’s maybe 1/1000 the size of a human hair. As I have written many times since last April, the idea that we can control the spread of a virus is both arrogant and foolhardy.
There were no “surges” after any purported “super-spreader” event. Not after Thanksgiving, not after Christmas, not after New Year’s Eve, not after the Superbowl. It never happened. Period.
The coronavirus is clearly seasonal and everything we have done (masks, lockdowns, hand-washing, social distancing) has done essentially nothing to slow the spread. A quick look around the country reveals the following:
Cases in Massachusetts peaked about January 12, 2021 and have since fallen 76%.
Cases in New York peaked about January 12, 2021 and have since fallen 56%.
Cases in Florida peaked about January 11, 2021 and have since fallen 70%.
Cases in Texas peaked about January 15, 2021 and have since fallen 79%.
Cases in California peaked about January 13, 2021 and have since fallen 91%.
Cases in Washington State peaked about January 9, 2021 and have since fallen 80%.
Literally from one corner of the country to the other we see the same basic pattern. Different areas of the country with different populations and different mitigation strategies, timings, and severities, and yet the same pattern, showing pretty convincingly that nothing we did (or could do) put a dent in the growth or decline of cases and the virus does whatever it wants to do, irrespective of what you’ve been told repeatedly by “experts” like Anthony Fauci.
Just in case you’re one of those people who believe that if not for our locking down and masking up things would have been much worse, just take a look at Sweden, where it was predicted by that crackpot fraud Neil Ferguson (2.2 million dead in America) that some 96,000 Swedes would die by May of 2020 unless strict lockdowns were put in place immediately. Turns out their total death count for the entire year was about 98,000 which is slightly higher than recent years and completely in line with their death count in 2012 or 2013. The Swedes implemented no lockdowns, they implemented no mask mandates, they mildly suggested a social distance of three feet (which nobody paid attention to), and yet nothing really happened. They essentially followed the aforementioned WHO 2019 guidelines. How do you explain that?
The coronavirus doesn’t “kill” anyone. It makes no evolutionary sense for a virus to kill its host. People die due to their body’s inability to handle the infection appropriately. The overwhelming evidence is that this virus is problematic for the elderly who are naturally weakened, and for people who are overweight (metabolically unhealthy). Out of about 548,000 deaths, about 410,000 (or 75%) of those are people 65 or older. Fully 55% of deaths were people 75 and older (although if you remove those who died in nursing homes, the population fatality rate for those over age 65 living at home is less than about 0.5% or one-half of one percent). A study released by the CDC on March 8, 2021 found that about 78% of people who were hospitalized, needed a ventilator, or died from COVID were overweight or obese (some 74% of Americans over age 20 are considered overweight and fully 42% of Americans over age 20 are considered obese - thanks to 40 years of dietary advice from the “experts” - so there’s that).
When you have an epidemic, you’re supposed to isolate the weak and let everyone else live normally. As said earlier, even the World Health Organization stated that quarantining “exposed” individuals was a waste of time. And the thought of society-wide lockdowns had never been dreamed of before the Chinese did it in early 2020. When you lock down everyone, you increase the risk to those truly in danger, in this case primarily the elderly, by effectively raising their exposure level to the same as the otherwise healthy. That’s what we did. Good job! (shout out Hancock)
It has been known since last April that those who are metabolically unhealthy are at greater risk, yet did you hear one mainstream “expert” or talking head advise you to start eating better and exercising to help protect yourself (I advised this way back on April 8th of 2020)? No. Instead we closed the gyms (but left the liquor stores open) and we locked people in their homes like calves being raised for veal where all they could do was read articles about how “now was the time for comfort food”, and just eat and drink and become more and more unhealthy. How many gained the “pandemic 15” or “covid 19”?
It has been recognized since last April that there is some connection between low vitamin D levels and more severe COVID illness, yet did you hear any “expert” or talking head advise you to get out in the sun (I advised this way back on April 29th of 2020)? No. Instead we made it illegal to walk in the park or lay on the beach and we locked people in their homes like calves being raised for veal where all they could do was become more unhealthy, disconnected, anxious, and depressed.
And almost as if it’s somebody’s idea of a cruel joke, we are still being told today to mask up and stay home. If the facts presented here somehow upset you as they don’t agree with whatever you believe you know because of what the “experts” have been telling you, sorry. The facts may make you uncomfortable, but you cannot “not believe” them, that would be irrational as these are the actual facts. After an entire year of hysteria, hyperbole, and fear-mongering, our actual experience has been, factually, nowhere near the narrative. If you are under age 65, and a risk of far less than one-half of one percent scares you, that’s certainly your prerogative. You do you. But for the rest of us, based on the actual data and the realization that our mitigative strategies are futile, it’s well past time to get back to life. If you’re looking for a guarantee of zero risk in life, I respectfully suggest you’re on the wrong planet. Having said that, it’s still not too late (never is) to start getting healthier through dietary changes, physical fitness, and spiritual well-being. Our apparently complete disconnect from our G-d given innate intelligence that protects the body and keeps it healthy has allowed us to now worship at the altar of medicine, as so presciently stated by famous pediatrician Dr. Robert Mendelsohn way back in the 1980’s. How’s that working out for you?
A brief note on vaccines: One, as already discussed, you stand better than a 99.8% chance of not having a significant interaction with the coronavirus so why the mania to get a rushed-to-market vaccine with no long-term testing data (btw, creating an environment of scarcity is a classic marketing tactic as is the use of the term “eligible”)? Two, the actual data from the big Pfizer Israeli study shows a vaccine protection against death of about 0.003% (three one-thousandths of one percent), and the protection from infection, symptoms, and hospitalization are similarly as small. Now I’m not telling anyone to not get the vaccine. As always, you do you. I’ll post soon a more extensive discussion of the vaccines because I believe people actually have a right to informed consent (silly me). I’ll just say for now, if you’re of child-bearing age or someday will be, I think it’s nuts to get this vaccine. There is essentially zero upside and an unknowable downside. Until then, these are the numbers, these are the facts. Do with them what you will.