Masks Work?

SCIENCE AND DATA ALERT!                                                                                                                                                          12/9/20

MASKS WORK?

So here’s a little math for your Wednesday. Below you see a graph depicting daily new coronavirus “cases” here in New Jersey. First of all, anyone just glancing at this can see that this virus (as most others) has a strong seasonal component. For those who say the coronavirus is not seasonal, clean off your glasses. Second, the vertical lines I have added denote where mask rules were implemented by the Wizard of Trenton. To be fair, panic back in March and early April was not a completely inappropriate response, however, certainly by the end of May at the latest (and much earlier as we are about to see), it should have been recognized that the actual epidemic here in Jersey was over and we should have sounded the all-clear (just two weeks to flatten the curve). But we didn’t. Returning to the graph, it is understandable how many might see that the case count flattened out immediately after mask implementation and say “See, we know masks work.” Except that’s not how it actually works. The graph depiction of daily cases represents a lag time from infection to “case” of about two weeks. This was especially true back in March/April as we were only testing people who were symptomatic. (Remember how we had no tests and we were all gonna die?) This is why you are told that any time you overhear someone say how their cousin’s girlfriend’s uncle once saw a man cough, you’re supposed to “self-quarantine” for 14 days, right? Or is it 10 days now? Who knows? By the way, even the World Health Organization in their pandemic plan guidelines released just this past October of 2019 (just before the world went to hell) does not recommend quarantining exposed people saying: “Home quarantine of exposed individuals to reduce transmission is not recommended because there is no obvious rationale for this measure…” OOF, that one’s gotta hurt. And they say the same for contact tracing (double OOF!). And society-wide lockdowns are so absurd that it had never even been mentioned before in the history of pandemic planning (is there a triple OOF?). But I digress.  So in any given two-week period of this graph, those numbers reflect (for the most part) the activity of the two weeks prior, get it? So while the first vertical line (April 8) certainly makes it look like masks work, let’s examine the actual numbers.

pic 1

TOTAL CASES REPORTED IN NEW JERSEY:

3/12-3/25:             4,369

3/26-4/8:            47,170 (11 times increase over the previous two week period)

4/9-4/22:            95,606 (only a 2 times increase; an 80% slowdown in growth)

4/23-5/6:            132,915 (only 0.38 times increase; an 80% slowdown in growth)

5/7-5/20:            152,065 (only 0.15 times increase; a 50% slowdown in growth)

5/21-6/3:            163,785 (only 0.08 times increase; a 50% slowdown in growth)

So we’re clear, the case numbers next to each two-week period are a running total, not how many cases were reported in that period. Notice the period from 4/9-4/22 in red. This represents the two weeks immediately following mask implementation, which was 4/8. Again, that running total of 95,606 represents an actual increase in cases of about 48,000 cases from the previous two week period ending 4/8 which shows that the increase in cases had already slowed down by 80% before masks were implemented. The two-week period from 4/23-5/6 is a reflection of the would-be effect of the mask order of 4/8 and shows the same slow down of 80% as the two-week period before. And you can see the next two two-week periods show a 50% slowdown in growth each. This is a natural pattern for a community viral infection. Infection rates go up, then they come down. The masks had nothing to do with it. If you choose not to believe that, notice the second line at July 8 when outdoor masks were dictated. Notice no change in the curve throughout the summer months (to be expected as this virus is seasonal) and then notice that even though we’d been wearing masks both inside and outside for many months, the cases begin to increase again in October. Almost as if the virus was…seasonal. Have I mentioned this pattern is completely normal for a respiratory virus? Look for it to peak in mid-January.

If you’re still not convinced, take a look at the R value curve.

pic 2a

Notice no inflection at all in the curve after masks were implemented. If I were to remove the lines indicating when masks were implemented, there isn’t an epidemiologist, not a virologist, not a fauciologist on the planet who could tell you by looking at this curve when masks were ordered to be worn, and that’s because they had no effect. Please also notice how the R value dropped about 60% before lockdown and more than 80% (sound familiar) before masks were ordered. So there’s that, and it’s called Nature!

If you are still a non-believer, look at New York:

pic 3a

They implemented masks after the curve had already turned down. Notice their curve is essentially identical to New Jersey’s. And their slowdown in growth is about the same. 85% slowdown in the two weeks just after masking (representing the two weeks prior), then a 60% slowdown, then 50%.

Here’s their R curve: 

pic 4a

Notice how New York’s curve dropped from above 5 all the way down to 1 before lockdown and long before masking (Nature!).

 Not to pile on, but here’s Massachusetts:

pic 5a

 And here’s Pennsylvania (not as dramatic but essentially the same): 

pic 6a 

One last time, I am not telling you not to wear a mask. You do you. But if you are doing “what you’re told” (shout out Anthony “never met a camera I didn’t like” Fauci) because you believe the people trying to literally control every breath you take know what they’re talking about, you are sadly mistaken. If you are condemning your friends and family as being stupid, selfish, science-denying, grandma-killers because they don’t wear masks, stop it. I may only have one or two more mask posts left in me because I realize those still hiding under their beds and washing their mail will never accept the actual SCIENCE AND DATA; they can’t. And I’m getting board with beating this horse…I like horses. I think I’ll turn my attention to Lockdowns. That stupidity and insanity makes the SCIENCE AND DATA behind mask wearing look positively Einsteinian! But don't think I've forgotten about Joe "two masks" Biden's PANIC PORN prediction of 250,000 more dead in December (spoiler alert - he's no Nostradamus). We'll return to that one soon. Happy Hump Day.

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