Lucky Guess I Suppose

5/2/21

So as many of you know from reading my screeds, I am a selfish, stupid, science-denying grandma-killer. As such, I have said many, many dangerous things over the past year that probably cost lives and if only I would learn to stay in my lane the world would be a safer, happier place. But every once in a while, even a blind squirrel like me finds a tasty acorn like this…

In a paper published on March 26, 2021 in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation; a completely legitimate, peer-reviewed scientific journal (not QAnon Daily), Dr. John Ioannidis, a non-political, world-renowned epidemiologist (not crazy Dr. Steve) said the following about the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID-19: “SARS-CoV-2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence SUGGESTS AVERAGE GLOBAL IFR of ~0.15%...” In a similar paper authored by Dr. Ioannidis and published by no less than the World Health Organization (not Conspiracies R Us) on October 14, 2020 he stated “Most locations probably have an INFECTION FATALITY RATE LESS THAN 0.20%”. Dr. Ioannidis boasts the following credentials: Departments of Medicine, of Epidemiology and Population Health, of Biomedical Data Science, and of Statistics, and Meta Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University. The paper published March 26th cites some 85 references, so while his name is in fact not Fauci, maybe he is someone who should be heard. Why am I telling you this? First, not only should you know the facts (some might even call it SCIENCE AND DATA) that say that the infection fatality rate of COVID is essentially the same as the common seasonal flu (which of course would make this “novel” virus much less scary), but to point out the aforementioned tasty acorn. Let’s take a look.

In my first COVID post of April 2, 2020 entitled “REMAIN CALM, ALL IS WELL”:

“So if we multiply our confirmed caseload of 200,000 by 10, we get 2,000,000 people infected (with perhaps as many as half of them having no symptoms at all). If we then take the number of deaths (4,300) and divide it by a conservative estimate of cases (2,000,000) WE GET A FATALITY RATE OF 0.2% (two-tenths of one percent). While this number does indeed represent a fatality rate twice that of the seasonal flu (that would be the headline you would see), in real terms it still represents a risk of dying from COVID-19 of two-tenths of one percent. Nobody reading this would make the effort to cross the street to save two-tenths of one percent on their next purchase. And this number is based on an estimate of 2,000,000 infected people; that number could easily be much higher, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FATALITY RATE EVEN MORE.” 

Not only did I “guess” right on the IFR, I also “guessed” right on the asymptomatics (asymptomatics considered to be somewhere between 40% and 80% at least). Now as has been pointed out many times, my name is not Fauci either and yet somehow I figured out way back in April of 2020 that the infection fatality rate would be about 0.2% while the “experts” were wetting themselves with proclamations of a more than 3% death rate and are still touting figures like 0.6% or higher. How did that happen? Is it because I’m so, so smart? Well, yes but that’s beside the point.  How do YOU explain it? How is it that a selfish, stupid science-denier such as myself could have possibly figured this out way back a full year ago?  I “guessed” right because I can read and do the four basic math functions, and by listening to non-hysterical, non-politically motivated people who follow the actual data. Or maybe just a lucky guess I suppose. I’m not posting this to pat myself on the back, I’m posting it to show those who are completely hysterical and afraid to crawl out from behind their masks that maybe you should stop listening to the “experts”. Maybe you should start listening to those of us who look at the actual SCIENCE AND DATA. Or maybe I SHOULD just stay in my lane and leave this very complicated stuff to those much smarter than me…

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