November 25, 2020
SCIENCE AND DATA ALERT!
New Jersey by the Numbers
So here in New Jersey, as in many places around the country, our benevolent leader has passed down instructions on how you are allowed to celebrate your Thanksgiving holiday. This, in the face of the “SECOND WAVE” (a completely normal increase in respiratory virus during this time of year) of the coronavirus that may very well kill every living thing on the planet as the virus has now supplanted man as the dominant species on the planet (shout out kooky Keith Olbermann). We are being instructed to, amongst other things:
- Limit your guests to just 10 people or less (sorry Cousin Jimmy), and stay six feet apart.
- Have your potential guests quarantine at home for 14 days before Thanksgiving.
- NO TOUCHING! No hugging, certainly no kissing, and whatever you do, DO NOT shake hands (thanks Fauci).
- Dinner outside.
- WEAR MASKS – even outside.
- If possible, puree your meal into a slurry so your guests can keep their masks on while they drink their turkey through a straw (OK, that one’s mine, but not far off).
- Provide gift bags full of masks, hand sanitizer, tissues and the like (sounds fun!).
- Remind people to wash their hands for at least 20 seconds (more fun!).
- Don’t touch anything. Once somebody touches a serving spoon throw it away.
- NO singing, NO shouting (have these overlords ever been to a family Thanksgiving?).
But it’s all for our own good (that’s your cue to run). Because we KNOW that indoor gatherings are where this apocalypse spreads. Hey, remember that time when we were ordered to stay inside cause we KNEW being outside was killing us. That was awesome. (Shout out Chris Farley) So let’s look at the numbers here in Jersey:
So as you can see, a big increase in “cases” (have I mentioned positive test results are not “cases”?) but essentially no increase in deaths (since mid-July). In fact, some back of the envelope math shows that in the spring, when we had a real epidemic, the case fatality rate was about 1:10 (one death for every 10 cases), now that number is about one in one hundred (one death for every 100 cases). How do you explain that? And before you respond with “our hospitals are being overwhelmed” stuff, let’s take a look.
Right now in New Jersey:
There are 2,902 people in the hospital with COVID. That accounts for about 10% of our hospital bed capacity and is a population case rate of about 0.04% (four one-hundredths of one percent of New Jersey residents in hospital with COVID).
There are 545 people in the ICU with COVID. That accounts for about 25% of our readily available ICU capacity and is a population ICU rate of about 0.007% (seven one-thousandths of one percent of New Jersey resident in ICU with COVID).
By the way, right now in the world, 99.4% of cases (positive tests aren’t… well you know) are considered mild.
When I ask “How do you explain that?” it’s not a rhetorical question. Yet so far nobody has answered any of the times I have presented the actual SCIENCE AND DATA and showed the those numbers do not justify the hysterical steps we are taking to “control” this virus. If you didn’t read my last post about the Marine study showing that no matter how hard you lock people down, the virus will spread, go back and read it. Next time we’ll talk about the Danish mask study which showed, well you’ll have to wait and see.
In any event, as always, I am not saying coronavirus and COVID-19 don’t exist, I’m not saying it’s a hoax or scam, I am not a stupid, selfish, science-denying grandma-killer. I’m not advising you to go out and lick the handrails at your local subway station or even not to wear a mask. You do you. What I am saying is maybe for some of us it’s time to awaken our modern, rational brain and take control back from our primitive fear-based brain. The sad truth is people will get sick and people will die. That has always been true and will (probably) always be true. Sad but true. By the way, in case you’re not aware, we here in the United States are on track to have a normal (perhaps very slightly higher or even perhaps slightly lower) number of yearly deaths (including COVID) this year, so there’s that. A story for another day.
As far as Thanksgiving and the upcoming holiday season are concerned, I hope we will not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Personal connection with those we love and care about is important all the time. Now more than ever. And as far as all the cotton-headed ninnymuggins (shout out Elf) who are pushing PANIC PORN down our throats are concerned, maybe you should tune them out. They have NO SCIENCE AND DATA to support their positions and edicts. They have been wrong in their predictions every time. Food for thought. Happy Thanksgiving.