PANIC PORN ALERT!
FAUCI’S AT IT AGAIN
So Lord Anthony “InStyle Cover Boy” Fauci (why exactly is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases on the cover of a “style” magazine sitting poolside looking “cool” with sunglasses on? In the middle of a pandemic?) is at it again. This past weekend he was on “Face the Nation” where he continued to tell us everything that could possibly go wrong in the world. One thing that caught my eye was a headline on the MSN homepage today titled “Dr. Fauci Just Warned of This ‘Dangerous’ Thing You Could Do” (shiver me timbers). This PANIC PORN piece starts (all capitalization mine for emphasis) by telling us in response to the outlandish question of is it too soon to “ALLOW” more indoor dining: “Experts like the head of the CDC, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the chief medical advisor to the President and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, believe so. “THINGS ARE TENUOUS,” she said. “Now is NOT THE TIME to relax restrictions. We CANNOT GET COMFORTABLE OR GIVE IN TO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY THAT THE WORST OF THE PANDEMIC IS BEHIND US.”
We’ve been told the worst is yet to come a half a dozen times since at least last September, even in the face of the completely normal and to-be-expected seasonal drop in cases we’ve seen since early January. If now is not the time to relax, when exactly will that time be? Zero cases worldwide? Why, with all the available data, would it be a “false sense of security” to think that the worst is behind us? What SCIENCE AND DATA is there, exactly, to portend more doom? Nobody ever asks, so nobody ever says.
Fauci then says: “If you look at the decline of that slope, it was really sharp and very encouraging if you look at the rate as it goes down...But over the last several days, it's kind of stopped at around 70,000 and lingered there for a day or two. That is concerning because the thing we don't want is to have it plateau at 70,000 per day. THAT’S EXACTLY THE THING THAT HAPPENED DURING PREVIOUS SURGES. As it peaked and started to come down, people withdrew some of the intensity of the public health measures and it kind of stabilized at a very high level. THAT’S VERY DANGEROUS, PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE THESE VARIANTS AROUND.”
First, as I have already shown you in a previous post (The Virus Is Seasonal) there were no “surges”. The curves we see are just natural viral activity. Second, even if you believe there were surges (which there weren’t) when were these post-surge declines and who withdrew or lessened what public health measures to allow for a “very high” plateau? And where are these stabilized very high levels of daily cases? Fauci cites a “70,000” case per day plateau and says that’s “exactly” what happened during “previous surges” (have I mentioned there were no “surges”?). Now let’s take a look at some numbers shall we?
From the beginning of this thing, February 15th through October 31st we averaged about 36,600 cases per day. There were just two days in July when the seven-day average was above 70,000 cases: 7/19 at 70,202 and 7/25 at 70,615 (numbers on different sites may be ever-so-slightly different). Otherwise it wasn’t until 10/25 when we next saw cases above 70,000 at 70,096. Since the beginning of October we’ve seen a normal seasonal increase and a subsequent normal seasonal decrease in cases, which peaked on January 11th at about 255,000 cases and is now down around 70,000 cases. What exactly changed in the “behavior” of the American people that facilitated that 73% decline in the last two months? Where exactly is the “stabilized” very high level? While we’re at around 70,000 cases now, there is no indication that we have “stabilized” at that level. And by the way, if we did stabilize at that level you would have to explain WHY. Exactly what mitigation measures have been lessened or removed that would “allow” the virus to stabilize at that rate (or any rate) instead of continuing to go down (or back up)? Does anyone really believe that “allowing” indoor dining to go from 25% capacity to 35% capacity, or heaven forbid 50% (shout out Governor Murphy) would somehow balance the daily cases to stay at 70,000 cases per day (or any level)? What could we possibly do to keep cases “plateaued” at any level? For the love of all that’s holy, c’mon man, THINK FOR YOURSELF!
What these idiots are saying is that by “easing” some mitigation measures (and of course they don’t tell us what they were, who did them, where, or when), those eased measures cause the same exact amount of cases to occur that exactly offset the number of cases that would otherwise not be happening if we didn’t ease said measures. In other words, if cases had been going down by about 3,000 a day since early January, and we had thus developed a “false sense of security” and then “withdrew some of the intensity of the public health measures”, this lessened intensity now allows for exactly 3,000 cases a day to occur that coincidentally matches exactly the number that are going down; and ostensibly they are 3,000 different people – some 3,000 don’t get infected (because of mitigation measures) but some 3,000 others do get infected (because of eased mitigation measures), thus a balance and plateau (#SCIENCE!). Of course that makes no sense because the alleged easing of public health measures is the alleged reason for the plateau which is to say it’s the reason the downward trend has stopped but not gone back up (plateau). How exactly does the virus recognize this easing? If the downward trend of the last two months continues, there would be on average 70,0000 cases today, 67,000 tomorrow, 64,000 the next day and so on. But somehow the virus sees its opportunity as we ease our valiant efforts to curtail it (a both arrogant and foolhardy attempt) and now infects exactly 70,000 people a day, every day. I guess the virus doesn’t want to be greedy and start infecting more people as it did all through fall and early winter (#SEASONALITY!). So instead of say, 67,000 tomorrow (or 73,000) the virus is happy to infect just 70,000. Every day. And that’s how you get a “plateau” (#SCIENCE!). What explanation, EXACTLY, would keep cases at a plateau based on what we do?
Referring to my previous “seasonal virus” post, if you look at individual states you see “cases” (btw, have I mentioned positive tests are not the same thing as “cases”?) drop to almost nothing after their seasonal increase. New York dropped to less than a thousand cases a day between roughly June 1st and October 1st. New Jersey saw a likewise drop during that same period and was below 500 cases per day for much of it. You can see the same pattern in every state although at different times of year and sometimes at slightly different numbers but the reason the U.S. curve looks the way it does is because different regions see different viral activity at different times. As cases come down in one region, there is an overlapping increase in another region, thus what looks sort of like a plateau; a “very high” one, of course. Is there any other kind? (shout out Jack Nicholson) Not because we have somehow eased up on hiding under our beds or washing our mail or wearing “only” one mask, but because that’s the virus doing exactly what the virus wants to do.
So I’ll ask again, for Walensky: Why are things ``tenuous”? Tenuous means our situation (I guess she means our improving numbers) could fall apart at any moment and the case count could “skyrocket” again so you better stay afraid of what “might” happen! What evidence is there for this assertion? When exactly will the time be to relax restrictions? When will a sense of security not be “false”? Exactly what data suggests that the worst of the pandemic is not behind us? And for Fauci: Who are the “people”who eased up on public health measures? And exactly what public health measures were eased? Where are these plateaus of “very high levels” and what exactly makes it particularly “very dangerous” given the new “variants” around? He should be able to answer these questions. He must know there are no “plateaus”. I hear he’s the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases after all. Maybe he could take a minute out of his very busy schedule of appearing on every single media outlet known to man all the time (I hear he’s going to be on Wonderama this Sunday) and explain his reasoning.
I implore you to listen more closely to what you’re being told by our “leaders” and the media. Just listen. Does what they’re saying make any sense? They’re full of crap, all the time, and they have made many of us freaked-out basket cases who have lost our ability to think and act rationally. I am not saying coronavirus is a hoax, I’m not saying people aren’t getting sick and dying. I’m saying the PANIC PORN we’ve been fed over the last year is way out of proportion to the actual events. And it is designed to keep you scared and “in your place”. Why? Not for me to say. But the questions I pose deserve an explanation. WE deserve an explanation. Just because Fauci or some other moronic autocrat says something doesn’t make it so. We should demand more from our “leaders”.
By the way, the daily cases since Friday (two days before Fauci’s “Face the Nation” appearance) are: Friday 81,252, Saturday 65,264, Sunday 52,966, Monday 53,147. So there’s that. Whether cases go up or down, it has nothing to do with our mitigation strategies and anyone who talks to you about “plateaus” is a moron. Unless this virus mutates and disappears the way the first SARS virus did back in 2003, this virus is now, and will continue to be, endemic in our society. Just like any other virus, there will be some low level of people who get infected even after we reach herd immunity, which according to Dr. Marty Makary "It does look like, based on the current trajectory, that come April or May, we're going to start seeing very low background levels of infection," Now Dr. Makary doesn’t work for Fox News of QAnon, but for the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. By the way, this herd immunity comes not from the vaccine, but from natural herd immunity through people being infected which by now, is probably most of us. Maybe next time we’ll talk more about that with a look at what happened in India. Until then, stop listening to your overlords.