September 4, 2020
SCIENCE AND DATA ALERT! COVID NUMBERS AND A BETTER WAY TO LOOK AT THEM.
I thought I would just quickly post some numbers which hopefully might help put your mind at ease as we enter what looks to be a beautiful holiday weekend. If you are still living your life under the oppressive yoke of fear and anxiety because your outlook has been co-opted by the PANIC PORN we have been fed for the past six months, please try to use your rational brain to override the more primitive fear generating part of your brain.
By the numbers: Here are your population fatality rates of dying from COVID.
Under age 65 - 0.01 (1/100 of one percent)
Under age 25 - 0.0004 (4/10,000 of one percent)
And although it’s true that your risk increases as your age increases, here are the risk numbers for more specific ages.
Ages 55-64 - 0.05 (5/100 of one percent)
Ages 65-74 - 0.1 (1/10 of one percent)
Ages 75-84 - 0.3 (3/10 of one percent)
Over age 85 - 0.8 (8/10 of one percent)
But if you remove the approximately 68,000 people who have died in nursing homes, the death rate for people over age 74 (assuming the overwhelming majority of nursing home residents are age 75 or older) drops to about 0.2 (2/10 of one percent). Let’s be clear before you attack, I’m not saying the nursing home victims don’t count, I’m saying they lived in an unnatural setting. This post is addressed to people living in the wild so to speak. So if you’re over age 75 and living at home, then the 0.2 applies to you. The numbers above are based on deaths by age divided by population by age which gives you a population fatality rate. Recently there have been some dustups involving exactly who has or has not actually died from COVID (read my previous piece about the 6% craziness; spoiler alert – if you believe 94% did not actually die from COVID, you’re mostly wrong, probably), and what appears to be a gross overrepresentation of positive tests (in some states as much as 90% more than those who are truly positive). But these are the absolute, stone-cold numbers. Some might even call it DATA. I’m not saying you shouldn’t take whatever precautions you see fit, and if you personally find a risk of 1/100 of one percent (which applies to 80% of the population) too great a chance to take, that is certainly your prerogative. I am saying that if you’re wearing a mask when you drive alone in your car with the windows rolled up, and you then go home and wash your mail, you might want to modulate your thinking a little by looking at the real numbers as opposed to what everyone “knows” is going on. Have a happy and fun Labor Day weekend!