A Funny Thing Happened

SCIENCE AND DATA ALERT!

1/21/21

A FUNNY THING HAPPENED ON THE WAY TO THE FORUM

(shout out Zero Mostel)

So something quite interesting happened yesterday, January 20, 2021. No, it wasn’t the inauguration of a new President. That might be interesting but it’s not “quite interesting”, after all it happens every four to eight years. No, what was “quite interesting” at least in my tiny mind was the release of a World Health Organization Information Notice concerning the use of PCR testing to detect the Extinction Level Event SARS-CoV-2 also known as the “novel” coronavirus, or the “rona”, or the “vid” depending on your preference; on January 20, 2021.

The description of the problem in this notice is as follows (all bold emphasis mine): “WHO requests users to follow the instructions for use (IFU) when interpreting results for specimens tested using PCR methodology.  Users must “read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is recommended by the manufacturer.”

 OK, time out. Is anyone else concerned that after the better part of a year of using these PCR tests to determine COVID “cases” and thereby drive hysteria and panic and use that hysteria and panic to destroy our economy, tear apart families and friendships, and gut our kids’ education and socialization, that the WHO is telling labs (who have been doing this testing for the better part of a year) to READ AND FOLLOW THE DAMN INSTRUCTIONS?!?! On January 20, 2021.

It gets better:   “WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.” 

Now who in all of Valhalla (shout out Thor) believes that anyone has been following these directions? Someone (shout out me) has told you like a jillion times that a positive test does not equal a “case”, yet every single positive test gets counted as a “case”. There is no careful interpretation going on here, there, or anywhere. And if you don’t understand all this cycle threshold nonsense, all you need to know is that the smaller the presence of the virus (or a fragment of the virus or maybe the fragment of a different coronavirus, or maybe the boogeyman) in a person, the more times you have to run that sample through the machine to magnify it to a point where it can be seen and thus counted as a positive “case”. The less virus, the more cycles needed. The problem with that is, as the WHO reminds us: “disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2).” On January 20, 2021. Seems someone has been warning of these “false positives” for some time, just can’t remember who (ok, yes I can, it’s me!). 

But wait, there’s more: “This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.”

The WHO continues: “Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.” Now how many times in the history of ever do you think any doctor, anywhere, said to someone “Well your PCR test is positive but none of your other factors in consideration point to a real infection, so just go about your life as usual.”? Um, I’ll take “zero” for the block Peter (shout out Hollywood Squares). And if you ever learned of the vagaries of the whole PCR testing, how much room for error there actually is, your head would just explode and you wouldn’t have to worry about COVID.

So what does this all mean? Well it tells you that the “pandemic” is really a “casedemic” (shout out Ivor Cummins) and for all of you who are still hiding under your bed and washing your mail because “the numbers are so high!” you might want to consider coming out of your hidey-hole and restarting your life. But the real thing to recognize here is the fact that this notice was released on January 20, 2021 and that’s significant for two reasons. One, it was released when everyone was focused on some other shiny object (the inauguration) so as not to be noticed and two, watch for the cycle thresholds of PCR testing to be reduced down to 30 cycles instead of the 37 to 40 cycles it has been run at all year, which will in turn show a dramatic drop in “cases”. Just in time to coincide with the vaccine, or the new President, or whatever talisman people care to use to make them feel like we have somehow “controlled” this virus. As I said back in April, the belief that we can somehow control this virus is both arrogant and foolhardy.

Next time (probably tomorrow) we’ll revisit some classic PANIC PORN reiterated AGAIN by Joe Biden at his inauguration and ask why nobody seems to notice, and we’ll review the actual numbers (some might call it SCIENCE AND DATA) that shows, as opposed to popular opinion, the virus is not growing exponentially but is in fact slowing down and has been doing so for months (even with all this “false positive” business) irrespective of our silly masks and ridiculous lockdowns. And of course long before vaccines or new government administrations. Stay tuned.

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