So in case you haven’t heard, there’s a new sheriff in town and its name is OMICRON. And with this new “variant” come the same old hysterical doom-sayers we’re all used to by now. At the top of the list we have Dr. Michael Osterholm who is an “expert” regularly appearing on the usual PANIC PORN outlets. If you’ve seen the headlines warning that the next 3 – 8 weeks could be a “VIRAL BLIZZARD” or that Omicron is a “VIRAL UZI” then you’re familiar with Mike’s work. Just for reference, he also warned back on January 27 that the next 6 – 14 weeks would be the “DARKEST” of the pandemic. Turns out the next 6 – 14 weeks showed an 80% REDUCTION in cases. He said the same thing on February 16 (already in the process of the case reduction) when he doubled down in the face of actual data and said the NEXT 14 weeks would be the “WORST OF THE PANDEMIC”. Over those next 14 weeks we saw an 83% REDUCTION in cases. So there’s that. Then there’s Fauci telling you to disinvite unvaxxed (or unboosted) family members from Christmas festivities. And so on and so forth. Danger abounds!! I’ll waste no more time on all the hysteria, let’s just take a look at the actual SCIENCE AND DATA we have.
Below are the case and death graphs for South Africa, the land from whence Omicron originated…we think. Notice how the curves for cases and deaths match pretty much identically for the first three spikes, then notice spike number four. Daily cases rose more than 6,000% (!!) in the month from November 18 (360 cases) to December 17 (23,500 cases) whereupon the cases peaked and have since dropped over the last five days by more than 25%. But notice that deaths during this latest Omi spike are essentially flat. As of yesterday there were 51 deaths reported (7 day average), which means the daily fatality rate for COVID in South Africa is about 0.00008% or eight one hundred-thousandths of one percent. If that’s too much of a risk for you, you’ve got bigger problems than COVID.
If you can understand what the graphs are telling you, you can stop reading if you want. That’s really all you need to know. Lots of cases, almost no deaths. Get on with your life. For a bit more in-depth analysis of the data and the PANIC PORN, read on.
Anybody still here? Good. South African researchers “…said they estimate the risk of hospitalization with Omicron is around 70% to 80% LOWER than with the earlier Delta strain…The researchers found the risk of developing severe symptoms once hospitalized, such as needing help to breathe or requiring intensive care, was also REDUCED with Omicron compared with Delta, again by around 70%...” And, “The number of Covid-19 hospitalizations in this wave is also being INFLATED BY THE FACT THAT MILDER PATIENTS ARE BEING ADMITTED because there is room to accommodate them. Many are there for OTHER COMPLAINTS but are routinely tested, according to health officials.” And, “Mortality has been VERY LOW in this wave, with the case-fatality ratio LOWER THAN AT ANY OTHER POINT IN THE PANDEMIC.”
We also know from other research that Omi takes up residence much more frequently in the bronchus (the tube leading to your lungs) than it does in the lung itself. While you may have been lied to and told that Omicron is 70 TIMES MORE TRANSMISSIBLE, the truth is that it multiplies 70 times faster in the bronchus than does Delta but at the same time 10 times SLOWER in the lung itself. So it appears we’ve basically traded pneumonia for a chest cold. Seems like a good deal to me.
But here’s an interesting note on the dishonesty of the press and their masters in Washington. Who can spot what seems a bit odd in the following quotes?
“South African researchers said they estimate the risk of hospitalization with Omicron is around 70% to 80% lower than with the earlier Delta strain, a promising sign that immunity from prior infection or vaccination offers substantial protection against severe illness.”
“Scientists have cautioned that other nations may have a different experience to South Africa as the country’s population is young compared with developed nations. Between 70% and 80% of citizens may also have had a prior Covid-19 infection, according to antibody surveys, meaning they could have some level of protection.”
“In South Africa, more than 70 percent of the population has been previously infected with other COVID-19 variants, giving their population a more robust antibody response.”
“As to why South Africa is seeing a sharp decline in omicron cases, Karim told the Post that both the quick rise of cases and omicron’s lower severity of illness could be a factor. However, it could also be country-specific, because in South Africa more than 70 percent of the population has been previously infected with other COVID-19 variants, giving their population a more robust antibody response.”
You should get the picture by now. They all site as a possible reason (or excuse) as to why South Africa is doing so well with Omicron the fact that more than 70% of the population has been “PREVIOUSLY INFECTED” and therefore they have a “MORE ROBUST ANTIBODY RESPONSE” meaning they could have “SUBSTANTIAL PROTECTION AGAINST SEVERE ILLNESS.”
Wait a minute, how can that possibly be the case? We’ve been told IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS that immunity from prior infection doesn’t count for anything. Nothing, zip, zilch, zero. That’s why we MUST get the vaccine to work or eat out or go to college even if we’ve been previously infected. Your own body’s defenses are USELESS and mean NOTHING. That’s the “science” according to he who is “The Science”. Yet here we’re being told essentially to not get our hopes up for an easier experience with Omi because THE REASON the South Africans have done well is because they have natural immunity from prior infection? What gives? We’re told somewhere around 70% of South Africans have natural immunity through previous infection. Here we’re told the estimates (by our very own CDC) are that about 65% of our population has been infected (and it’s almost certainly much higher than that). Can that extra 5% make all the difference? Seems unlikely. Why is immunity from previous infection a “reason” for South Africa’s good experience but here that won’t count? Why does it appear the press is trying to dress up the good news of Omicron in the worst possible light for us? Why does it appear they’re telling us “Don’t get your hopes up, just get your THIRD SHOT and get back under your bed”? Why sentences like “The news comes as the Omicron variant continues to TAKE A GRIP of many countries around the world, including in the United States, where the variant has now been detected in every state. Meanwhile, countries across Europe are reintroducing Covid RESTRICTIONS to BATTLE this latest wave, driven by the new variant.”? By the way, the “RESTRICTIONS” did little to nothing to slow previous editions of the 'rona but somehow they’re going to work against the MUCH MORE TRANSMISSIBLE Omi? That’s what you call SCIENCE!
They also report the requisite PANIC PORN about the unvaxxed. You’re being told that the fully vaxxed will have an easier time with this but as I have asked before, if Omi causes a milder cold, why only for the “fully vaxxed”? A milder cold is a milder cold. Period. But Uncle Joe tells those not smart enough to get the jab that they're in for a "...winter of serve illness and death." And then we’re hit with: “Dr. Jassat said that 87% of the Covid-related deaths recorded between Nov. 7 and Dec. 18 were of UNVACCINATED individuals.” Well, there you go. What else do you need to know? Roll up your sleeve, troglodyte. But let’s do just a bit of math, shall we? There were about 1,013 deaths in South Africa between November 7 and December 18. 87% would be about 881 deaths. South Africa has a vaccine coverage of only about 27% out of 60 million people which means about 44 million people are unvaccinated. 881 deaths out of an unvaccinated population of 44 million people is a risk of death from Omicron of about 0.002% or two one-thousandths of one percent. Again if that scares you, you have bigger problems than COVID.
By the way, we have a fully vaccinated coverage more than twice that (62%) of South Africa with about the same amount of previous infection (at least) but still the apocalypse is coming? Go figure. Can things go worse here? Sure, we are a nation of fat sick people after all. But by EVERY BIT OF DATA we presently have, there is NO SCIENTIFIC rationale for people to be running around with their hair on fire. We confront Omicron with a two-year history of about 99.8% COVID survival. Omicron appears by every known metric to be MUCH LESS threatening than those variants that came before. So why are unvaxxed Uncle Billy and Aunt Tillie not coming to Christmas dinner? The saddest story I've heard this holiday season (and one of the saddest I've ever heard) is a patient telling me they won't be seeing his grandfather because he has Alzheimer's. I'm told this will most certainly be the last year he recognizes any of his family but...you know...COVID. What are we doing? You can live a happy, loving life with family and friends, or you can live a scared, lonely life trying not to die. Your choice.
Wishing everybody the happiest most joyous holiday season possible. Go hug a human.