So in honor of Independence Day let’s all declare our freedom from our overlords who have spent the last year and a half subjugating us through the power of falsehoods and fear. It’s long past time to crawl out from under your bed, cast off your mask, and hug your fellow man. And for all those who think I’m being a dangerous heretic who is clearly out of my lane, or who really believe they know something about the evil DELTA variant because the mainstream media or some government “expert” told them so, here’s the actual data as to what is really going on. You may not like it because it doesn’t fit your narrative, but factual it is nonetheless.
As everyone “knows”, the Delta variant is sweeping through the UK like dust across the Oklahoma plains in the 1930’s. And of course, as you have been told by many “experts” and others who really care about you, this variant of concern is not only unbelievably transmissible, but also more deadly, so please whatever you do, for the love of all that’s holy…and patriotic…get vaccinated! I posted about this the other day discussing Joe “This is an even bigger concern because of the delta variant” Biden tweeting out a video of Tony “With all due modesty, I think I’m pretty effective” Fauci decrying the not just existential, but ACTUAL imminent danger we are all in as the satanic Delta variant begins to march across our country like Sherman marching to the sea. The typical story goes something like this one from Reuters (my caps for emphasis) “The Delta variant, which is becoming dominant in many countries, is MORE EASILY TRANSMISSIBLE than earlier versions of the coronavirus and MAY [qualifier alert!] cause more severe disease, ESPECIALLY AMONG YOUNG PEOPLE.” Isn’t it interesting that the group most reticent to get vaccinated is the VERY SAME group for which this variant is ESPECIALLY dangerous? That’s what you call a coincidence. Well, pay no attention to that man behind the curtain (shout out Wizard of Oz). Nothing to see here, move along. But before you drag your kid out to get vaccinated, let’s take a look at the actual ‘SCIENCE AND DATA” shall we?
First, this inconvenient headline from The Hill on MSN News: “Data: Delta variant is NOT SPARKING mass hospitalizations in England” Of course the piece tries to push the narrative that it is the vaccine which is saving everyone, but again, that’s not what the data shows (more on this later). So before you roll up both sleeves and go running into the night in search of someone with a syringe, let’s take a look at some interesting information.
According to Technical Briefing 17 of June 25th 2021 entitled “SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England” which is published by Public Health England (the UK government), not “Science-Denier Daily”, the following are the FACTS.
From February 1, 2021 through June 21, 2021 there were 50,283 confirmed cases of the Delta variant in the UK. That’s 50,283 out of about 68 million people for a population “case” rate of 0.07% (seven one-hundredths of one percent). There were also, however, another 42,000 “probable” cases which if included brings the population case rate all the way up to a staggering 0.1% (one-tenth of one percent). I don’t know that 0.1% justifies the bad press old Delta has been getting, but as always you do you. Now out of those 92,000 cases there were 117 deaths. Even if you include all 117 as truly dying from COVID-19, that’s a case fatality rate of 0.1%, which is the same as the regular seasonal flu and only about 5% of the case fatality rate of the Alpha (original) coronavirus strain. Moreover, for those under age 50 (I’m pretty sure these people would be counted as “young”) infected with the Delta, there were 8 deaths out of some 82,000 cases for a case fatality rate of 0.01% (one one-hundredth of one percent), or as it is listed in the data table, 0.0%. The fatality rate for this age group for the Alpha strain is 0.1% (ten times more than Delta). If you look at people over age 50, the case fatality rate is only about 20% of that of the Alpha strain. And by the way, this is the “case” fatality rate. If you calculated the “infection” fatality rate (including those infected but not counted because they never got tested because they weren’t actually sick) those numbers would be much lower. So as has been pointed out many times before, I’m not a virologist or immunologist or epidemiologist, or for that matter a little man with an oversized ego who has a casual relationship with the truth and who has spent his entire adult life skulking around the basement halls of government buildings (although I can read and do the four basic math functions pretty well), but I just don’t see how a fatality risk of zero qualifies as “especially dangerous among young people”. Here are some charts:
And here’s a graph showing the rise of the Delta variant and the decline of the hospitalization rate (hat-tip Ivor Cummins). As you can see, the rise of the Delta variant started in late March and is now responsible for just about all UK COVID cases (big deal). At the same time the hospitalization rate (green line) has dropped and stayed near zero. Although to be completely fair, the daily hospitalization rate has skyrocketed up to about 400, which is a daily hospitalization rate for the population of our cousins across the pond of about 0.0005% (five ten-thousandths of one percent), so there’s that. And that’s after more than a month of almost exclusively Delta infection. It’s gonna getcha!
So I know a lot of people way smarter than me have been, and will continue, to tell you a different story but this is the actual SCIENCE AND DATA whether you like it or not. It is certainly your right to still be afraid of something that presents zero risk; we’ve had a lot of practice at that over the last year. But you do not have a right to deny this is the data. That is irrational.
By the way, for all of you yelling “It’s the vaccine you moron!” you should know that on April 1st (about when Delta showed up, or at least was recognized), only about 9% of Brits had been given two vaccine shots; on May 1st that number was about 29% and by June 1st it was 49% (which is right about where we in the U.S. are now). So even if the vaccine works against Delta, it would have had little effect in the early stages of the Delta onslaught. Also please notice there is no deflection in the hospitalization line to indicate any beneficial effect on hospitalizations from the vaccine. Just sayin’.
Take home message: STOP LISTENING TO THE EXPERTS AND THE MEDIA! They DO NOT have your best interests at heart. You are being lied to. Every day. All the time. If you cannot see the PANIC PORN here designed to coerce you to vaccinate the young then you are lost. And please understand, the Delta variant is not in “addition” to the others, it is largely replacing them. So a more infectious but less dangerous strain, which will infect more but harm less, is a better way to naturally inoculate the population with less pain and in a quicker fashion.
In closing, I will once more (I think this is the fourth time) show you the case graph for India and ask, if this Delta variant (or the entire coronavirus for that matter) is so infectious and so dangerous, how do you explain this graph? How is it possible that the cases (and deaths) dropped off as quickly as they rose? How is it possible that one of the most crowded, poorest, dirtiest countries on earth (which has already experienced two “waves”) has a deaths-per-million rate only about 15% of that of the U.S., the U.K., France, Italy, or Spain?
Free yourself from irrational fear. Get out there and hug another human being.