So we have all heard this term – “the New Normal” for a while now and many have visions of rolling mask mandates and lockdowns and perhaps vaccine passports in perpetuity. But maybe the “New Normal” is just ignorance of and hysteria about a virus that is now an endemic part of our world. Maybe it’s just time to get used to it and move on. For, as we are all more than well aware, the Delta variant of the “novel” coronavirus is taking over our country like Beatlemania in the 1960’s. We have been told or pleaded with or coerced or bribed by our overlords and professional media morons for many weeks to just get our damned vaccine as that is the ONLY way we’re ever going to get out of this hellscape we find ourselves in (except now we’re back to you should still wear your mask or maybe hide in your house even if you’re fully vaccinated…because). Now we are told this is a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” and that people are “idiots” if they don’t get the vaccine and we should in fact just force people to take a drug they do not want to take…for the greater good, of course. I’m not here to advocate either way for vaccines as it’s none of my damn business (or anyone else’s) if you get vaccinated or not, but there has to be some modicum of sanity left in the world, and actual facts still (or at least should) matter. What exactly is going on here? The numbers (as usual) tell a different story than your favorite PANIC PORN purveyor would lead you to believe. Let’s take a look at some actual SCIENCE AND DATA concerning this “fourth wave” and the imperative to vaccinate everything that moves.
First, data out of the UK shows that the Delta variant (which is taking over the world in case you haven’t heard) has a fatality rate only 10% of the original (Alpha) variant. So even if it is more easily transmissible, it is far, far less of a threat to anyone to whom the coronarvirus was a threat to begin with (which is fairly normal viral mutation behavior), which is to say pretty much none of us.
Second, as of now we have about 50% of the U.S. population “fully vaccinated” (that is, until the “booster-of-the-month club begins) and about 57% of people with at least one dose. We also have tens of millions of people previously infected who are at least as protected as those who’ve been vaccinated. Now some of those people would also count in the vaccinated group but we have no way of knowing how many people previously infected also got vaccinated (I wonder why), so let’s be very conservative and say there are about 50 million Americans who have been previously infected but not vaccinated. Let’s say that adds up to 200 million people either fully vaccinated or previously infected. That leaves somewhere on the order of 130 million people not vaccinated. That estimate lines up pretty well with Mayo Clinic data.
Out of that 130 million, roughly 55 million would be kids under 12 who are not yet “eligible” to get a vaccine against a virus that poses zero threat to them. There would also be some 18 million kids age 13-17. As there are roughly 14% of kids under age 18 who are vaccinated and we’ll assume just about all of them are between 13 and 17 (assuming there are not that many maniacs out there taking their five year olds to get vaccinated), that leaves roughly 15 million kids age 13-17 not vaccinated. That’s 55 plus 15 equals 70 million kids under 18 not vaccinated. Likewise 52% of 18-24 year olds and 56% of 25-39 year olds are vaccinated leaving about 40 million people in those age groups unvaccinated. So 70 plus 40 equals about 110 million people under the age of 40 not vaccinated. My math lines up almost exactly with the Mayo Clinic data which shows about 109 million people under age 40 not vaccinated. My estimates say that would leave roughly 20 million people beyond the age of 40 not vaccinated. Using the Mayo Clinic data you might have about 28 million people left unvaccinated beyond age 40. The extra eight million people is accounted for by age cohort and population estimate differences.
Anyway, as I have shown you many times before, the case fatality rates in people under age 40 are 0.0004% (four ten-thousandths of one percent) for ages 0-17, 0.007% (seven one-thousandths of one percent) for 18-29, and 0.02% (two one-hundredths of one percent) for ages 30-39. So that means for about 80% of the stupid, selfish, science-denying, grandma-killing (now I guess just plain old anybody-killing) idiots out there who have yet to be vaccinated (irrespective of previous infection status), their risk of dying from this virus is effectively ZERO. That leaves somewhere around 25 million people above age 40 who could be considered even remotely “at risk” for a negative experience with COVID which is now dominated by a strain that has only 10% of the fatality rate of the original strain under which all the aforementioned fatality risk percentages were calculated. So the truth is, for those 25 million people, their risk is also now essentially zero (although the whole truth is the risk has been essentially zero for almost everybody since the beginning; that’s why after almost a year and a half we stand a 99.8% chance of NOT succumbing to the ‘rona).
So what the hell are we doing? Why the full-court press to vaccinate those who have not been, when at least 80% of those people stand zero risk and almost half of them are not even yet “eligible”? Is it hysteria? Panic? Sheer stupidity? Or something more nefarious? Not for me to say. It certainly is not science; that I can say with certainty. And by the way, exactly why do you care if others get vaccinated? If you’re vaccinated, we are told with great confidence that while you may get infected, it will surely be a mild cold at worst and your chances of spreading it are nil. So what’s it to you if your neighbor gets vaccinated? If your concern is that the unvaccinated are “killing people”, those people would be other unvaccinated idiots who no-doubt deserve what they get, right? It’s not gonna be kids as they are at no risk, so it would be other adults who have made their personal choice so let them take their chances. If your concern is the “cost” to society to take care of these people, where have you been for the last 30 years demanding people get their stomachs stapled or have their mouths sewn shut or be forced to exercise as we are eating ourselves into the tune of 1.3 million deaths EVERY YEAR due to heart disease and cancer which are both largely (and of course not entirely) attributable to lifestyle; not to mention the expense connected to diabetes?
By the way again, here’s a little throw-away prediction: This “fourth wave” that is “ravaging” the southern states where all those stupid unvaccinated people live, will peter out in the next two weeks or so. By then as we come into the new school year, the next boogeyman (maybe the Lambda variant) will be on the horizon. Scary stuff.
The “New Normal” appears to be perpetual fear-mongering and oppressive government or social policies surrounding a virus that looks like it’s here to stay. One of my biggest objections to mask mandates and lockdowns (other than they, by the actual SCIENCE AND DATA, do all but nothing to slow respiratory viral spread) is that they were the tip of a spear that normalized oppressive and onerous government policies. Now we are seeing the rest of that spear (although there could be more to come). When the choice is either take a drug or lose your job, or to be forced to “show your papers” to function in society, or to be demonized by your fellow citizens for not doing what you’re told, all in the name of a boogeyman WHICH IS NOWHERE NEAR WHAT IT HAS BEEN MADE OUT TO BE, something has gone very wrong. And NONE of what we’ve done over the last 17 months has been justified at all by the SCIENCE AND DATA. That is a fact. Some of you might want to examine how casually you hurl epithets at people who aren’t doing what you think you “know” to be what must be done. History will show that the damage done to our society by our reaction to this virus dwarfs the deleterious effects of the virus itself. Maybe some of us should consider the possibility that what we think we know might not actually be true. Nah, it’s much more fun to be self-righteous and self-important. Hey, maybe we should start going door-to-door to “persuade” people of the need for vaccination. Oh, wait…