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COVID - THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT

7/20/21

First, shout out to The Who for the title.

Second, anyone who is not still hiding under their bed knows that the evil coronavirus, now led by the dastardly Delta variant, is making another assault on humanity like the Confederates at Gettysburg. This time, however, it is the young who are “most vulnerable” and all we are hearing is how we MUST mask our young again and get them vaccinated (apparently, for many, even if kids aren’t “eligible” yet)! C’mon man, it’s their patriotic duty. As the Eskimos used to say, Feh! (obtuse shout out Felix Unger) Although as I have said before, it’s an awful big coincidence that the group most reluctant (or not yet “eligible”) to get vaccinated is now the “most vulnerable”. What are the chances? Now I’m not going to get into vaccine efficacy or the growing talk of new mask mandates or lockdowns or other such nonsense here (you want to get vaccinated and wear two masks, you do you), but I thought we could look at the actual numbers, what some might even call SCIENCE AND DATA, to discover just how much of the PANIC PORN surrounding the danger to “young” people is really true. Without further ado, let’s dive into some numbers.

But first let’s review where we are in America almost a full year and a half into this pandemic:

“Cases”           35,000,000

“Deaths”              625,000

Now neither of those numbers is anywhere near accurate but we’ll take them at face value and work with what we’ve got. The “case” number means nothing. As we’ve discussed many times, a positive test result does not a “case” make, but the “deaths” number gets people’s attention. If you do a little math, you will find a population fatality rate of about 0.18%, meaning your chance of NOT dying (or even for NOT having a significantly negative interaction with COVID) stands at about 99.8%, and therefore for most of us, even if you are just “relatively” healthy or under 70 years old your risk is essentially zero. Likewise, according to CDC numbers, the population hospitalization rate is about 0.06% which means your chance of NOT ending up in the hospital due to COVID is about 99.94%. This is data on more than 330,000,000 people over almost 18 months. That’s a pretty good sample size. And those are pretty good odds (after almost a year and a half) so maybe we could all back up off that ledge and look at this situation a little more sanely before we all start washing our mail again (remember when that was a thing?).

As far as the “young” are concerned, examining the numbers makes those sounding the alarm look just plain silly. But it also raises an interesting question. Of course, first we have to define what the “experts” mean by the “young”. Most normal people would assume we’re talking about those age newborn to 17. Some use up to age 30 (coincidentally then including the "eligible" group least interested in getting vaccinated). This is where that interesting question arises. I tell you what, we’ll get back to that. As to fatality rates, I have been through these numbers many times already in an attempt to get the hystericals out there to try to dial it back – generally to no avail. Here’s a review:

Age 0-17     

337 COVID Deaths Total (0.004% fatality rate)                                                                                                                               Only 65 are deaths from “Deaths Involving COVID-19 and Pneumonia” (0.00009% fatality rate)                3,235 Total Hospitalizations Due to COVID (0.004%)

Age 18-29      

2,446 COVID Deaths Total (0.005% fatality rate)                                                                                                                         Only 1,085 are deaths from “Deaths Involving COVID-19 and Pneumonia” (0.002% fatality rate)

Now I can’t give you the hospitalization rate for “young” people 18-29 because the CDC doesn’t list them. Here’s where that interesting question comes in. Deaths are listed by age 0-17, 18-29, and 30-39. Hospitalizations are listed by age 0-4, 5-17, but then 18-49 (then 50-64, and 65+). Now why would it be that this cohort of “young” people would span such a large age range for hospitalizations? As I have pointed out before, this allows for various talking heads and other lying idiots to tell you how the “hospitalization rate for 21 year olds” is increasing (because they are in this large cohort with people significantly older who are actually driving the very small increase), which is meant to scare you into submission to whatever the whim-of-the-day is. Who on this planet considers a 20 year old in the same health cohort (or any other cohort for that matter) as a 48 year old? If I saw a 48 or 49 year old guy hitting on my 20 year old daughter at a party, he and I would have a very interesting conversation if you get my drift. (shout out Fonzie) For the record, the hospitalization rate for 18-49 year olds is about 0.04% (four one-hundredths of one percent). This is presented as a 25 year old having TEN TIMES the risk of hospitalization as a 15 year old (so you better get vaccinated!), but of course that is not true. Even the guy still hiding under the bed knows risks increase with age. I’m quite confident (although to be completely fair, I cannot be certain) if the CDC stratified this data into let’s say 18-29, 30-39, and 40-49 we would see a much smaller risk to those under 30, but that would ruin the story. So it’s important that you recognize this kind of data manipulation designed to push a certain narrative.

Anyway, back to the “young”. A fatality risk (for ages 0-17) of somewhere between four ten-thousandths of one percent and nine one hundred-thousandths of one percent is not something any normal person would ever think twice about. Likewise for the 18-29 cohort, which has a slightly higher but still infinitesimal risk factor. By the way, for what is listed as “Pediatric” hospitalizations (one would assume 0-17), some 54% of kids hospitalized had some underlying medical condition with obesity an underlying condition for about 34% of kids hospitalized. Maybe that should be the headline. I recently wrote about the doubling of diabetes in kids during the pandemic but not a word from our overlords. So by all means, let's keep feeding our children chocolate frosted sugar bombs (shout out Calvin and Hobbes) cereal for breakfast but then turn around and rush to stick a needle in their arms that will "protect" them. Seems about right.

And for those who think they “know” kids are being hit harder or are in more danger from the Delta devil because Anthony Fauci says so, here are the numbers. For the last six weeks, we have averaged about 28 kids (0-17 years old) hospitalized. For reference, through the peak of the seasonal infections (November through January) we were averaging somewhere around 80 pediatric hospitalizations. And the 28 or so case average over the last six weeks is pretty much as low as we’ve seen since the beginning of this thing. The last six weeks have seen “young” hospitalizations at about 50% of what they were in the previous six weeks. So for those who “know” COVID in kids is on the rise, not so much. By the way, if you actually listen to what Fauci says, he emphasizes that kids’ cases are increasing “relatively” which is actually true . "Cases" in kids are rising relative to the total number of cases as the total case count declines. He's quite the little weasel who is always very careful to qualify his statements.  Again to be completely transparent (there's a novel idea), pediatric hospitalizations hit a low of 20 (which is the lowest number since April of 2020) the week ending June 19th and in the ensuing weeks have gone up to 24, 24, 31, and 29 respectively. So the mainstream media headline would decry "Pediatric Hospitalizations UP 50% in Last Month!" which would be technically correct, but as I have said previously, a 50% increase of zero is still zero.  Unfortunately most people aren’t paying that close of attention and all they hear is kids are getting sicker more often and more severely. But the SCIENCE AND DATA does not support that “belief”. The risk of serious interaction with COVID for kids is still, as it has been all along, zero.

Stop listening to the “experts” and the talking heads. They do not have your best interest at heart. There is no data anywhere to suggest that kids or “young people” are any more at risk now than they have been since March of 2020, which is to say, zero risk. These are the facts. If you don’t like them because they don’t fit into your world view then you are being irrational. Stop being irrational.

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